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the flu comes on fast, so ask your doctor about tamiflu. prescription for flu. time can ofbe...well...taxing. so right now we'll give you... ...$10 off any turbo tax deluxe level software or higher! find thousands of big deals now... officemax. i'm jim cramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> firms are going to go out of business, and he's nuts. they're nuts. they know nothing. >> i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. some people want to make friends. i'm just trying to help you make a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc.
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the dow jones average is just a stone's throw from 14,000. headed to its all time high that we reached five years ago. the index which rallied 72 points along with s&p and nasdaq 52.2% is in rarified territory for certain. yet the chatter it remains skeptical. as i've said many a time, i'm never going to criticize the skepticism. i applaud it. it is a quality that has made me a ton of money versus the complacency which has been a continual loser. skepticism allows you to leave the table after a big run. and if complacency says you're going to buy and hold. i'm sure that there are plenty of index fund supporters who say come on and see, if you bought
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and held you would have done fine after all, but you could have made so much more money doing what these theoreticians think is impossible. which is selling high, and buying low. getting out and getting back in. that is undeniable now. it's empirical. and if you manage to get out near the high of 14,000 and change or 12 or 11,000, and then you get back in near the bottom, you have made a fortune and more important you didn't lose one. congratulations. and then the logical question is this -- should we ring the register this time around? is that the correct course given that it worked last time? well, you have come to the right place. let me give you some history before we get to the matter at hand. first off, this isn't the first
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time we have clawed our way back from the crash of epic proportions. we fell to 2017 down to 1400 in october. that's right. another 50% retracement of the high. i was trading with karen cramer back then, and we went into all cash the friday before what became known as black monday. it was a brilliant call. i skated on it for years. when we last got back to that level, i couldn't resist. i fought it tooth and nail. hammer and ties. no level. we shouldn't have been to that level to begin with. i searched for shorts in the dow. i bought s&p puts as we neared the moment. i would tell anyone who would listen we were skating on thin ice. that was wrong.
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all i had going for me was the fact that we had failed before. i didn't have a leg to stand on. it wasn't open-minded skepticism which is what i had thought. it was my cynicism, and it failed me. things changed after that. that is when the market began the long traverse to higher levels and with each milestone came a level of rejoicing. ♪ hallelujah that was admittedly exciting. i remember getting my down 10,000 hat in 1999 and then the dow was hit by the nasdaq. up 2,000, 4,000. that ended terribly. >> the house of pain. sell sell sell. >> ever since the immolation of
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the dotcom collapse, we've been cautious. optimism is a sure sign of someone who is about to wear a post-it. i know i don't intend to celebrate if you take out that 14,000 level. and not because i don't want to wear that on my forehead. we are in a different time than where we were then. in 2007 we had a worried housing market and a fixed income market no one understood, coupled with growth in china and a robust market for all things technology. all things. you know what? those came crashing back to earth. and that produced notable eliminations like aig, citigroup which over levered its balance sheet and general motors and
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auto sales came crashing down. i would never have taken altria out. and it is never too late to let honeywell back in. but here is what is really incredible about so many of the dow stocks right now versus where they were then. the last time we saw these levels the tech stocks were riding high on the personal computer. the fablet and the smartphone have cut deeply into their businesses. at least in the case of intel and microsoft. they are, and they have plenty of cash. hewlett-packard may not be as bad off as the decline would indicate. i don't know i like the stock but i think it is too low. since the 2007 top, the dow's added bank of america, cisco,
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chevron, travelers and united health. on traditional analysis, none of these stocks can be considered expensive. bank of america, at least on a book value, even after the stock more than doubled last year. can you imagine if the dow added amazon, even as those earnings reported tonight were helped by larger than expected profit margins? there are no admittedly overpriced but astounding performers in the dow jones average. but you want cheap? last time the dow visited these levels people were valuing the pharmaceutical companies as growth entities. decent multiples from pfizer, j and j, merck. now they are getting back to where they were.
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so let's ponder these apple to apple comparisons. pfizer should have $20 billion this year. j and j. merck which remember isn't back yet nearly to where it was, has $12 billion in cash flow. i'm amazed at how cheap these drug stocks are on those cash multiples. consider that at&t, the original seller of the apple iphone is down 18 points. and verizon is barely up from that despite increases from both companies. how about the stars since the 2007 peak? aren't they due for a fall? since we were last at these exalted heights home depot at gone from 41 to 67.
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in the interim, it has distanced itself and it is still inexpensive on earnings. same with ibm. it has come up to $204. but the company earnings have almost doubled but they are forecasting $20 a share. doable number. the stock is not cheap. in the near term maybe, but on a 2015 basis, very inexpensive. does disney belong at 54, up from 34? the stock deserves this improvement. in fact, i can say there are plenty of dow stocks that don't belong as low as they are. alcoa, a fraction of its price tag from back then. its cash flow has gone to positive $200 million. 3m it is a much better company
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now than back then. just now, just now it took out its high. and how much more time does general electric have to spend at roughly half of where it was when it has addressed and embraced real profits in a consistent way. here is the bottom line. we aren't going celebrate the dow 14,000 level. but to presume it's top is no more prescient than what i thought in 1989. to think it is more expensive is fanciful. we were too high. i could argue that we don't belong here this time. maybe we will look back and find out that we were too low. corey in texas. >> jim, thank you for taking my call, and the time. the stock that i was calling you about was sony, sne, with the change going on, trying to sell
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the building in new york, and china potentially lifting the video game console ban, what do you think about that? >> the yen getting cheaper is going to help. you need product, and earnings momentum and they don't have it. i'm not a buyer of sony. i would be a seller on any lift. i feel the same way in the past, but learn from my mistake. cynicism is not skepticism and it may actually be time for optimism. "mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, how high? the market continues to hit new five year highs but the big question remains will we get a pull back before soaring to new all time highs. tonight cramer takes on the technicals to help you find out, when he goes off the charts. don't miss a second of "mad money."
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follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim and e-mail or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to [ female announcer ] today, jason is here to volunteer to help those in need. when a twinge of back pain surprises him. morning starts in high spirits, but there's a growing pain in his lower back. as lines grow longer, his pain continues to linger. but after a long day of helping others, he gets some helpful advice. just two aleve have the strength to keep back pain away all day. today, jason chose aleve. just two pills for all day pain relief. try aleve d for strong, all day long
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this latest bull run has been spectacular, but how long can the market keep it up? isn't it a sucker's game to believe that this rally can continue can continue and won't run it into a brick wall and crush your portfolio? maybe the rally has real staying power. maybe when you look back at the history of the market over the last three decades, you can see that we may have only started a long march higher. that's the idea i wanted to entertain on tonight's off the charts with the help of scott
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redler who is the chief officer at t3 trading as well as my colleague at who has gotten this chart right so far. he points out that the market is not particularly kind to you, right? you can see that right here. the s&p back to 2000 is trading sideways. it is looking that we may be able to break out of the range here. back on february 14th of 2012, redler told us that he could see it going to 1700 by 2015. since then, the s&p has rallied to nearly 1508. we could see that target sooner than he predicted. but to understand redler's long-term optimism, we need to take a step back. for anyone who has been trading during the last dozen or so
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years, it has been one crisis after another. dotcom collapse, the housing bust, financial apocalypse. it wasn't always like this. so check this out, look at this. this is a chart of the s&p 500 from 1976 through 2000. look at how the market roared in the '80s, and then it surged in the '90s. in the go-go '90s it surged 360%. we had two straight decades where stocks were simply fabulous investments. now redler is not saying we are going to repeat those incredible
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moves. it is not unprecedented for the averages to have massive multi year rallies. it doesn't mean we have to go back down. look at the chart from 1996 to where we are now. rather than going up endlessly and relentlessly, the s&p 500 became a roller coaster. after the run from march of 2009 we are only 50 points away from the levels of where the s and p peaked in 2000 and again in 2007. peak and peak and almost there. some think this means you got to get cautious, right? remember i talked to you about that at the top of the show. he believes we could be ready to break free from that pattern.
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he believes the s&p could break out above this resistance and make beautiful long-term highs. the reason? take a gander at the daily chart going back to this past may. redler thinks this is gorgeous, a gorgeous picture, one with a downright perfect bullish setup to start the year. remember the low was higher than the november one. so those are, we love that. that is perfect action. very, bullish time for chartists because it indicates a powerful trend. the s&p gapped up courtesy of the last minute fiscal cliff work around, and then it rallied higher, giving our january these historic numbers we talked about. the s&p broke out at 1474 and
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now we are above the key level of 1500 which means from redler's perspective there is little resistance left standing in the way of this rally. we are overbought but on the other hand it is possible to stay a little over bought for long periods of time without having a nasty pullback. especially when the s&p is above the averages like it is now. another big positive for chart watchers. if the s&p pulls back below those averages, he would get more cautious, at least short term. let's put it together going all the way back to 1970, when i had huge amount of hair. we have a monster rally in the '80s and '90s. monster. in the last decade in the period of the known and horrid consolidation. this double top formation has controlled the s&p for years.
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based on the positive action he has seen, he thinks the index could soon break out from this consolidation range to new highs. the first time the s&p hit the 1540 or 1565 level in the past, he thinks we might see some resistance. the long term trend is higher and as soon as we get above this double top, which he is confident, then the next stop will be 1700 and perhaps beyond. 12.7% increase from where we are right now. the s&p could get to 1700, but he thinks we are going to get there even faster. here is the bottom line. you know i like this one. his chart work gives us a technical reason to believe this move is far from over, from a guy who has called it right.
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we got to take it seriously. nicholas in florida. >> hey jim, how are you doing? >> i'm a little shy of voice but i'm hustling like everybody else. what's up? >> i'm calling about blooming brands. i wanted to get your opinion on it. >> it is a new restaurant chain. it is doing pretty well. i have to compare it. i had a piece this morning about ruby tuesday. i would have compare it to other companies of similar size before i make a judgment. i have been anxious to do that. let me come back particularly because we have a lit of components involving commodity prices that are playing havoc with the restaurant chains. but it could be the tip of iceberg. my take? it has been right so far. maybe he is onto something. after the break i will try to
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make you some more money. >> coming up, air tight? investors in tupperware have reason to celebrate. should you seal up shares of this or could it be getting stale. don't miss cramer's exclusive with it's ceo.
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lately there has been a lot of fuss over multilevel marketing companies, or direct sales companies that use regular people to sell their products. last week we had the clash over herbalife, a scam, a claim which the company denies. and thursday an outfit was shut down called fortune high-tech
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marketing. not all direct sellers are scams like this firm the ftc shut down yesterday. they aren't even controversial like herbalife. some are totally legitimate. best of breed companies like tupperware. even the queen of england gets her breakfast cereals out of them. it is a huge hit in the developing world as it gets 59% of its sales from emerging markets. this morning it reported a solid quarter with a two cent beat on better revenues that are up. and not only did the company give upside guidance.
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tupperware gave you a 72% dividend boost giving you a yield, at these levels the stock shot up to a new high. tupperware has rallied more than 13% and the stock is up 207% at slightly less than $20 giving you a 347% return. let's check in with the chairman and ceo of tupperware to get a sense of what is happening in the world of direct selling. welcome back to "mad money." guten tag. i'm here in frankfurt. >> you did it again. what gives you that level of confidence to increase your
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dividend by an unbelievable amount, the largest i've seen since this earnings period began? >> a couple of things. we really have confidence in a going forward approach. you know it is interesting that i'm in germany. people asked me what keeps you up at night and it was germany. it was 60% of our profits. now, we have multiple engines of growth and we are very much an "and" business. it is established markets like germany where we were up really strongly this last year and very strong profits as well, and we are emerging markets. second thing, we really look at our business and we look at the runway that we've got ahead and we say we are a cash generating machine. we've got enough cash to grow the business and we decided you
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know what? we can handle this kind of leverage. we did a return of 1.75 and we said let's return this to the shareholders. we don't have an interest in acquisitions. that means we are going to return some in the form of continued share repurchase, a lot this year, but at the same time we raised this dividend. it is a combination of these things. >> let's talk about that buyback. basically you could say you are buying 50% of your company in from the open market. >> i look at the numbers for this year, and what we are going to be buying is almost 10% of the stock of the company. jim, a lot of people have asked us, why did you do it this way, dividend and share repurchase? i'll tell you, our partners are our shareholders and we went out to our 25 largest shareholders
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and some of them want it in dividends, those that are looking for this high yield and others wanted it in share repurchase. we can do both, and both look good for us. it is all a signal that we wouldn't have down this unless we felt that we had a confident growth and multiple engines of growth. and i have to add, jim, we still have four or five markets that aren't doing what we want them to do. we don't have to hit on all cylinders. >> the other thing that you have done, rick, because you know that there has been a back and forth on our own network. bill ackman is against herbalife. carl icahn is in it. you have never retreated from distinguishing your company from these others including an excellent white paper where you say that herbalife is a network
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marketing company, and you along with others are a direct seller. can you define what direct selling is and why are you distancing yourself from some of the other companies that claim to be in your industry? >> i'm not going to take issue with network marketing, multi level marketers but they are chalk and cheese from traditional sellers. what you had from prior to 1950, direct selling companies, avon, fuller brush, even tupperware where people went out and sold to a retail customer. you had the emergence of these network marketing companies that recruited people not so much to sell, but to consume their products, and you saw it in cosmetics and supplements and a lot of them came and went because their episodic kind of businesses.
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they are not direct sellers. they are wholesale buying clubs and based on sign up to save money and consume the product. we are based on we recruit our people, we finance them with their kit, we train them free and we teach them to go to a retail customer. the final litmus is who is the customer. over 90% of our sales are through a retail customer. only 10% to the sales force and they buy that because we have so many new products every year. the bulk of their products are consumption by their network. so they are chalk and cheese. >> how do you know that yours is 90%? if you have 3,000 storefronts in china, how can you monitor that? >> you wouldn't believe the level of detail we have. every monday morning we have a
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stand up meeting. i don't care whether it is christmas day because the world isn't christian. it is done in one hour. we have a report of what happened the previous week, what the sales were, what the recruits were, who they were and people that went to the party. we manage our bigs down to the detail of it. so it is not if maybe might. we know for sure. >> rick, i notice, and i follow your products, new chopper and new dish that i like. you can buy these things online, go to the website, it is not like i have to go to someone and then become a seller myself in order to get the product. no, but what happens is, most people don't understand our product unless they come to a demonstration, and so what will happen is, less than 3% of our sales are sales online. but when somebody comes to a
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presentation they not only see this new chopper that sells for $70 in the us and $50 euro here, they come to a party and they don't focus on what it does. they focus on what it makes. and i'll tell you, the younger women we are recruiting today, she says show me how to save time. we have a whole line of products that are basically time savers for younger women. >> you're making a lot of money for shareholders. thank you for coming on. great quarter sir, good to see you. sic: "make someone happy" music: "make someone happy" ♪it's so important to make someone happy.♪ ♪it's so important to make someone happy.♪ ♪make just one someone happy ♪and you will be happy too.
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it is time, it is time for the lightning round. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready skee daddy, it is time for the lightning round. we'll start with eddie in new jersey. >> how are you? i hear you are not so good tonight.
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>> i'll do it, i'll finish it. i'm a trooper. >> two weeks ago you had the ceo on from chiniere and i got interested in the stock. i'm confused because there are two chenieres listed. >> the lng is the one he said it has a clear flight path. natural gas stays slow. that said, it has quite a run. cool it a little and then do some buying. ryan in virginia, ryan? >> just wanted to give you a united states navy booyah. >> a thank you for serving booyah. appreciate it. >> my company -- >> drug company, it is an orphan drug company. i think it is good, but understand it is speculative. let's go to mark in new mexico. >> looking at alan. >> i like that. buy buy buy. it is a good refiner.
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and that, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ]'ll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪ se me, sir i'm gonnatrade. have to ask you to power down your little word game. i think your friends will understand. oh no, it's actually my geico app...see? ...i just uh paid my bill. did you really? from the plane? yeah, i can manage my policy, get roadside assistance, yeah, you know, pretty much access geico 24/7. sounds a little too good to be true sir. i'll believe that when pigs fly.
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>> don't just stand there, do something. that has been one of the major themes we think will play out in 2013. companies taking forceful action to unlock value. already we have are had our first success with the potential breakup of hess, one i've told you could happen. this colossal and colossally underperforming oil and gas company which is now the subject of a proxy fight has vaulted ten points on the news, and i think the stock could go higher if the company gets sold. remember, hess has some of the best oil and gas assets out there. i think it deserves to trade back at the level that stood two
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years ago up 18 points from where it stood now. so, i believe it's worth going over all the other don't just stand there, do something ideas that i had there on the show. first, the most recent is aliant systems. the defense contractor's niche includes precision weapons systems but it is primarily known as a bullet maker. it would be the envy of any defense contractor that would be hurt by the budget cuts. the news here. last night ollen, a chemical company, reported a decent quarter. the winchester ammunition division said sales were strong. ammo sales spiked saturday before the presidential election
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and have continued strong in the first quarter. next we recommend that the house of manitowoc, divided between food service equipment and cranes, cannot stand. to me, the reaction to the streets to caterpillar's earnings and the sharply better than expected numbers from united rentals, with equipment used for construction tells me that is indeed worth the price of the equipment. suggests to me that the industry has too much value in it to not be unlocked by manitowoc or a motivated suitor. let's not forget the run by kitchen equipment maker, middlebee, when they purchased the viking range business. the company could easily afford to take a run at the entire $2.3
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billion manitowoc or seek to purchase the food business. which for a while the remaining business will shine. what do you say about a company that missed its projections so far and created a product that might have a 40% failure rate? a company repeated sanctioned by the fda. for most companies, i would say it would be on the 52 week low list. but not if it is johnson and johnson. the reason, people continue to speculate that j and j will join the ranks of the older high flying pharmas. the company made it clear that it is now going to start pruning divisions that aren't in the first or second spots when it comes to market share. remember, new ceo has come in and he doesn't have to worry
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about the legacy of lassitude of his much revered -- strangely -- predecessor william welden. hain celestial. a bit of a disappointment. but i think it is time to recognize that on earnings alone, stocks could be higher. this organic food company has organic growth. it is the one stop solution for the slower growing package food companies to take aisle space in whole foods. i think ceo irwin simon has done a remarkable job buying up brands and blowing them out. he has created a $2.5 billion colossus of shareholder value. carl icahn owns 15% of the company. but carl might be more of a what have you done for me lately kind of a guy. i don't know how patient he
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might be, given the underperformance. it has fallen from 73 to 55. if i was running campbell soup, a company known as a salty soup concern, i would purchase hain and turn the whole company over to simon to run the darn thing. next up, the deckers story. this one has gotten murkier. vf corp said to be in talks to buy billabong. also uggs the flagship brand seems played out. and so was timberland. i do not expect a good quarter from deckers. that is what happens. so, after listening to the dupont, 3m and honeywell calls. and hearing how well they are doing, i still can't believe
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there isn't a bidding war for mine safety appliances, taking into account the stock price. with the turning in europe perhaps at hand. maybe it won't matter. mine safety should go higher. what else? that rush out of bonds, remember they took in $400 billion into stock funds and attracted $14 billion in 2013. may allow the financial services division dst, did hit it's 52 week high today. there are so many cats and dogs under the roof of this company when they could unlock so much value by breaking it up. i had thought that fortune brands would be a natural candidate for a merger. solidifying its dominance in the housing comeback. but like so many others, fortune
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brands hasn't needed much help from the deal makers. finally, there is a real controversial one. bed, bath and beyond. a retailer reported in the times since i suggested that perhaps management was tired. analysts constantly saying that amazon is going to crush the company. what can i say? i'm sure there will be another round of remonstration. people think it is a borders or circuit city twin. meanwhile the shares are coming down and bed bath is too cheap for management to ignore. i think you get a nice pop if they decide to take themselves private. bottom line, hess, it's just the beginning. maybe it is time to take matters into their own hands and join
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in the parade. manitowoc, hain, deckers, dsd, fortune brands and bed, bath and beyond. don't just stand there, do something. "mad money" is back after the break. keep up with cramer all day long. follow on @jimcramer twitter and tweet your questions. ♪ let's go. ♪
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♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing the all-new cadillac xts... another big night on the town, eh? ...and the return of life lived large. ♪
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it's happening. the revolution in oil and gas is
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happening. you just need to know where to look for it. today we saw it in valero, which reported phenomenal earnings this morning thanks to the incredible boom in us oil and gas drilling. the best 4th quarter since 2005 when cars were guzzling much more gasoline, they said quote we replaced all imported light crude oils since we expect u.s. and canadian crude oils to be available we are increasing these cost advantage crudes throughout our refining system. end quote. in other words, because of the bakken and eagle ford shale and so many other terrific
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prospects, they no longer need to import from countries including countries that we regard as our friends, this trend is going to get stronger. prices at the american pump reflect the higher cost of the formerly imported crude. the difference is monumental and could cause valero to go higher. it is the most aggressive company yet. only frontier remains at a higher value. they really told a great story. the disparity between cheap, cleaner domestic oil and imported crude is one of the reasons that i told you that hess is in excess of what it is selling for. the other day hess committed to
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getting out of the east coast refinery network, which is dedicated to getting the crude at its memphis and gulf coast refineries. the lack of pipe prohibits hess from getting the crude that valero has. the spinoff could double the company. it is proposing its own slatables. some respected oil people. wow, there are two important takeaways here. the marketplace is still well behind recognizing our domestic oil. the second is if we had an energy policy in washington that incorporated our domestic oil and our bountiful natural gas
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into its thinking, we could smash opec and become the cheapest place on earth and put millions of people to work including in a more secure environment. we are barely scratching the surface of natural gas use. ford admitting there isn't enough natural gas infrastructure to sell nat gas cars in this country. what a sad set of circumstances. stick with cramer.
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Mad Money
CNBC January 29, 2013 11:00pm-12:00am EST

News/Business. (2013)

TOPIC FREQUENCY S&p 13, Redler 5, Cramer 5, Us 5, America 4, Jim 4, Manitowoc 4, Herbalife 4, China 3, Geico 3, Germany 2, Carl Icahn 2, Jason 2, Officemax 2, Honeywell 2, Ameritrade 2, Deckers 2, Sony 2, Cisco 2, Pfizer 2
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